COVID-19 Charts

Analysis of latest Covid-19 UK data, updated daily.

Last updated 11:33 26 May 2020.

Reported Cases and Deaths

On 29 April the UK Gov methodology for measurement of Covid-19 deaths changed.

This is why there is break and then a step change in the "Total Deaths" and "New Deaths, 7 day avg" numbers.

Please note that the "New/Total Deaths %, 7 day average" in the last chart is still valid and is continues to be the best indicator of progress for COvid-19 epidemic.

Testing

Shows new cases and also people who didn't test positive (not new cases).

Shows what proportion of testing is identifying new cases.

On 23 May the UK Gov stopped providing data on numbers of new people tested, i.e. people who were tested for the first time, either in a clinical setting or who self-presented elsewhere. We may conclude from this that there are very few possible new cases.

Cases + forecast

The forecasting methodology is to select the forecast rate of daily change to illustrate a linear reduction to 5% since the UK Gov introduced stronger containment measure which became effective on 23 March.

%5 is the initial target figure to avoid a worst case scenario, i.e. 500,000 deaths in the UK.

For Cases the forecast daily rate change is modeled to reduce to 8% over 3 weeks since 23 March.

Deaths + forecast

For Deaths the forecast daily rate change was originally modeled to reduce to 5% over 5 weeks since 23 March.

However the actual Deaths each day were lower than forecast since 5 April.

This suggests that the "lock-down" in the UK had an impact on Deaths two weeks later, i.e. Deaths lag infection by 2 weeks.

The forecast was remodeled on 20 April, thus a step down change in forecast deaths each day. The new forecast starts at 5% reducing to zero over 6 weeks.

UK gov daily coronavirus press conference

Link to UK gov daily coronavirus press conference slide and datasets

One slide in that slide deck is particularly interesting: "People in Hospital with COVID-19 (Great Britain)". As this is updated daily, please see it for yourself.